Blended Finance and the Bankability of Renewable Energy Infrastructure in Africa: Explaining the Gap Between Capital Commitments and Financial Close

Abstract

This study examined how blended finance influenced the bankability and financial-close outcomes of six renewable-energy infrastructure cases across Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa and Côte d’Ivoire. A comparative multiple-case design combined documentary analysis, process tracing and a ten-criterion Project Bankability Assessment Index. Evidence was drawn from 48 project, government, development-finance, institutional and peer-reviewed documents covering 2015–August 2026. The analysis distinguished capital commitment, financing approval, financial close, disbursement and operation. Menengai achieved the highest bankability score at 90.0%, followed by Redstone and Singrobo-Ahouaty at 85.0% each, Boundiali at 80.0% and the Nigeria Electrification Project at 75.0%. Nigeria’s utility-scale solar IPP programme recorded 25.0% because currency, tariff, off-taker and guarantee risks remained unresolved. Currency and off-taker weaknesses affected five cases, while construction delays affected four. The findings showed that blended finance supported financial close when instruments addressed identifiable project risks, as demonstrated by public absorption of geothermal exploration risk at Menengai and performance-based support for Nigerian mini-grids. Conversely, capital commitments and signed power-purchase agreements did not produce bankability where revenue and foreign-exchange risks remained unallocated. The study contributed a commitment-to-close framework separating financing announcements from executable investment and distinguished financial bankability from implementation performance. It concluded that Africa required stronger project preparation, local-currency finance, credible off-taker support, transparent guarantees and post-close monitoring to convert climate-finance commitments into operational infrastructure at scale and on time.