Trade War Threat Perceptions and Strategic Transformation: Adaptive Responses and Performance Outcomes in Vietnamese Export-Oriented Enterprises

Abstract

processes and subsequent performance outcomes among Vietnamese export-oriented enterprises during periods of heightened global trade uncertainty. Drawing upon dynamic capabilities theory and institutional theory, the research develops and empirically tests a comprehensive conceptual framework linking managerial threat perceptions to strategic adaptability and firm performance through mediating mechanisms of organisational learning and resource reconfiguration. Utilising a mixed-methods approach combining structural equation modelling (SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), the study analyses primary data from 384 Vietnamese manufacturing firms collected during 2016-2017. The findings reveal that trade war threat perceptions significantly enhance strategic adaptability, which subsequently improves financial performance through multiple pathways. However, the relationship is moderated by firm size and industry characteristics, with larger firms demonstrating superior adaptive capabilities. The fsQCA results identify three distinct configurational pathways to high performance, suggesting equifinality in strategic responses to trade uncertainties. This research contributes to the strategic management literature by elucidating the cognitive and behavioural mechanisms through which external threats catalyse organisational transformation, whilst providing practical insights for managers navigating volatile trade environments in emerging markets.